Stop calling it 'The AI bubble': It's actually multiple bubbles, each with a different expiration date

It’s the question on everyone’s minds and lips: Are we in an AI bubble?

It's the wrong question. The real question is: Which AI bubble are we in, and when will each one burst?

The debate over whether AI represents a transformative technology or an economic time bomb has reached a fever pitch. Even tech leaders like Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg have acknowledged evidence of an unstable financial bubble forming around AI. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates see clear bubble dynamics: overexcited investors, frothy valuations and plenty of doomed projects — but they still believe AI will ultimately transform the economy.

But treating "AI" as a single monolithic entity destined for a uniform collapse is fundamentally misguided.  The AI ecosystem is actually three distinct layers, each with different economics, defensibility and risk profiles. Understanding these layers is critical, because they won't all pop ...