Predictions 2026: Three ways government tech will surprise us this year

As the government closes the book on another year of tech upheaval, it’s worth remembering that trends rarely unfold in straight lines. Some evolve slowly until they explode, others quietly creep into operations until one day everyone wonders how they ever lived without them. In 2026, we’re likely to see three such developments in federal technology. One seems obvious until it isn’t. One finally gets measured the way leaders say they want it. And one will quietly become the backbone of how government tests risk before anything new ever sees daylight.

Now, it’s worth noting that my 2025 predictions were pretty big swings, as were the ones the year before. But 2026 is probably not going to be a year of dramatic breakthroughs. Instead, we will see many of the innovations of previous years finally making inroads into government service. Specifically, AI will no longer be ...