Anthropic bods rework AI damage yardstick, find scant labor impact

Anthropic economists Maxim Massenkoff and Peter McCrory report that AI is not eliminating as many jobs as experts have predicted. 

Take CEO Dario Amodei as one such expert. In January 2026, Amodei revisited and expanded upon his 2025 prediction that "AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs in the next 1–5 years."

"In the end AI will be able to do everything, and we need to grapple with that," he said in his epic post.

Some day, robots may fold clothes and ferry idle citizens about to spend their government-allocated basic income at depopulated pop-up stores. But not today.

At the moment, it appears AI has had almost no impact on those whose jobs are considered to be "exposed" to automation.

"We find no systematic increase in unemployment for highly exposed workers since late 2022, though we find suggestive evidence that hiring of younger workers has ...