Old-school spycraft could make a comeback as AI undermines trust

An article in the CIA’s Studies in Intelligence journal argues that artificial intelligence may erode confidence in certain electronic communications and further revive centuries-old human intelligence techniques.

Artificial intelligence is widely expected to revolutionize intelligence gathering, enabling faster, cheaper and more scalable collection of information. But a new analysis suggests the technology may also spur a return to some of espionage’s oldest methods.

The recent article published in Studies in Intelligence, the CIA-backed academic journal, argues that, as AI degrades the reliability of digital communications like text messages and video calls, traditional human intelligence tradecraft — like dead drops, brush passes and in-person meetings — could regain renewed importance.

The same technologies that enhance intelligence gathering may ironically make it harder to trust the data those tools produce or transmit, argues the author, Thomas Mulligan, a RAND Corporation researcher who served in the CIA from 2008 to 2014.

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