Iranian Ayatollah Khamenei’s Death Sparks Revolt Among Kalshi Customers

In the lead up to the United States and Israel’s attack on Iran, prediction markets saw a frenzy of activity tied to the conflict. Speculators rushed to guess when the first missile strikes would begin and who might be impacted, placing trades worth hundreds of millions of dollars in total. There are already big winners—and some big losers. This weekend, following the death of Iranian Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Kalshi faced a customer revolt over how it handled a $54 million market about the fate of Iran’s leadership. “People are absolutely livid,” says Kalshi trader Nicholas Mahoney.

The market offered “yes” or “no” contracts on whether Khamanei would be “out” as the nation’s Supreme Leader. On Saturday morning, while rumors of Khamenei’s death circulated online but an official announcement had not yet been made, Kalshi was promoting the market on social media. After his assasination was ...