How strong is New York’s “illegal gambling” case against Valve’s loot boxes?

For years now, Valve fans have been making jokes about the company’s slow transition from game maker to glorified digital hat and knife paint marketplace. This week, though, a lawsuit brought by the state of New York argues that Valve’s in-game loot box sales amount to an illegal gambling outfit worth tens of billions of dollars.

Lawyers who have looked into the particulars of the case tell Ars that the state faces an uphill battle in convincing courts that this portion of Valve’s business legally constitutes gambling. That said, there are a few elements of the case that might make Valve legally vulnerable to the state’s arguments.

What is gambling, anyway?

For a game to legally be counted as “gambling” in most jurisdictions, it has to pass a three-part test: a player has to pay money (1) for an outcome that’s materially determined by chance ...